I was waiting for the Day Two information leak and PDFs from the Texas Tribune on their new fake Internet poll, but I think they’ve said all they care to say.
So that means I have several questions about the hypothetical Perry vs. Abbott bout.
I tried to decipher the methodology document, but I think it’s written in Sanskrit, and it probably translates to “nothing to see here, you nosy asshole.”
It’d be easier to assume that the weighting system makes sense if they had included the all-important crosstabs, which always convey far more than the published numbers.
Alas, the pollsters have deemed us worthy of obscure toplines only. And what of them?
Despite Ross Ramsey’s headline, this is bad news for Team Perry. Jim Henson offers the most intriguing nugget about Abbott (consistent with what the PPP hippies claim):
“A lot of people don’t know who he is, but those who do are overwhelmingly positive”
Hmm. That sounds a lot like Ted Cruz about a year ago. But Abbott’s situation is nowhere near as dire as Cruz’s early showing.
- Abbott has a year til crunch time, and he’s already at 17% (allegedly) whereas Cruz was hovering around 5% for months.
- Perry’s start (and I would suggest that it is his ceiling) is considerably lower than Dewhurst’s was.
- Abbott has cash money. Dolla dolla bill, y’all. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Abbott outspend Perry 2 to 1. Cruz couldn’t raise squat—it was the Club for Growth that carried his paid media efforts against the well-self-funded Dewhurst.
- Word is that Abbott is already quietly assembling a commendable campaign team.
- Abbott will likely have a one-on-one contest with Perry to reach all constituencies. Cruz and Michael Williams were constantly trying to outflank each other on the ground for the same hyper-aggressive talkers in the conservative chattering class before Williams gave up.
However, we all know that Team Perry is accustomed to eating bad news for breakfast and pooping out political gold before lunch. This poll by the same outfit from approximately four years ago showed KBH 8 points up on Perry.
The difference may be that much of Perry’s team has disbanded or defected…or, in some cases, has been shown the door for unknown reasons. Enter disloyal mercenaries.
All this pontificating may be for naught. When you have red flags like only 15% of respondents being over 65 years old—and you don’t explain it—you may as well omit any margin of error disclaimer, because many will assume that it’s 100%. I guess that’s what happens when people are taking the poll in their underwear so that they can receive a Chili’s gift card.